Child Labor During The Late 1900 S Essay - 1502 Words

Everyone can agree life has it’s wonderful and egregious moments. Some people have a grand life with insufficient negativity. Others people have a miserable life and non imposing. In the late 1800’s and beginning to mid 1900’s, child labor caused several children to have an inimical life rather than a preeminent life. When people read what these children had gone through, they fail to remember to put themselves in the children’s situation; therefore, they don’t understand, nor cease how horrendous life was for the children. Numerous factual documents state how deplorable life was for the children during this era. Furthermore, these documents include the Union-made Cigars, Finding of the Commission, the Law of 1913, the letter from WPA Teacher Union to Governor Lehman, and lastly a telegram from Mrs. of Nassau County to Governor Lehman. Schools today teach this time period to the students and share innumerable certainties of the children’s liv es. Ultimately, children in this life span had an atrocious duration. To inaugurate the child labor existence, the leading report selected is from the Union-made Cigars. This first record revealed a label including the president’s seal of approval affirming, â€Å"This Certifies, that the Cigars contained in this box have been made by a First-Class Workman, a MEMBER OF THE CIGAR MAKERS’ INTERNATIONAL UNION of America, an organization opposed to inferior rat-shop, COOLIE, PRISON, or FILTHY TENEMENT-HOUSE WORKMANSHIP. Therefore, we recommendShow MoreRelatedâ€Å"When People In The United States Think Of ChildrenS Rights1722 Words   |  7 Pagesthink of children s rights they usually think of children in third world countries who are victims of abusive child labor practices or insurmountable poverty† (Wilson 1). However, in reality it is not just in third world countries, it is also in the United States. From the American colonial period till the mid nineteenth century, child labor has been an important issue. It has taken many yea rs to come to an agreement of the definition of child labor. One way to define child labor is: â€Å"All forms ofRead MoreChild Labor during the Industrial Revolution Essay722 Words   |  3 PagesBackground Research Throughout history, children have always worked, either as apprentices or servants. However, child labor reached a whole new scale during the time period of the Industrial Revolution. Throughout the time frame of late 1800s-early 1900s, children worked long hours in dangerous factory conditions for very little wages. They were considered useful as laborers because their small stature allowed them to be cramped into smaller spaces, and they could be paid less for their servicesRead MoreThe Progressive Era Of The Era1250 Words   |  5 Pageswell as a trustbuster, and this furthered his reputation as being the savior of the issues of the late 1800’s and early 1900’s because he pushed to reform as many obstacles presented to him as he could. Even though he gained his presidential spot due to the assassination of President McKinley he still proved to be the most effective president in dealing with the issues of the late 1800s and the early 1900s. In 1902 Roosevelt resolved a mining strike, which resulted in a 10 percent pay increase and aRead MoreImmigrants Coming to America867 Words   |  3 PagesIn the late 1800’s and early 1900’s many immigrants came to the United States for a better way of life. I chose this particular question because I am first generation American. My parents were born in Sicily; my great grandparents came to the United States in the early 1900’s. My grandmother was born in the United States 1904, although she was born in America her parents did not choose to remain in the United States. Longing for their home land my great grandparents moved the family back toRead MoreA Positive Impact On The United States991 Words   |  4 PagesThere were many struggles for freedom and equality throughout the 1900’s. Different cultures may have spoken different languages, practiced different belief systems, and lived on different lands. One thing that they all had in common was the introduction to segregation which led to violence and war. Several foreign policies were introduced throughout this era to meet the needs of oligarchies. The final quarter of the 19th century to westward expansion has left both a positive and negative impactRead MoreHistory of Human Resource Management Essay1398 Words   |  6 Pagesevolving rap idly. Human resource management is both an academic theory and a business practice that addresses the theoretical and practical techniques of managing a workforce. (1) Human resource management has it roots in the late and early 1900s. When workers jobs became less labor intense and more working with machinary. The scientific management movement began. This movement was started by Frederick Taylor when he wrote about it a book titled The Principles of Scientific Management. The book statedRead MoreEssay about Womens Role In The Economy1548 Words   |  7 Pagescolonial America there was a distinct sexual division of labor. Men were property owners and heads of households. A man’s responsibilities included staple crop farming, hunting, and skilled craftsmanship in order to produce commodities for market (An Economic History of Women in America Pp. 30-33). Women were responsible for a variety of different jobs. In the home and the fields women ensured the survival of the family. They were responsible for child rearing, housework, food processing, cloth and clothingRead MoreChild Labor During The 1800 S1285 Words   |  6 PagesZach Woo d October 5, 2016 Child Labor 1880-1910 Child labor was very common in the late 1800’s and the early 1900’s in many places. Child labor usually took place in a factory working on a manufacturer line or doing as much physical labor as they could possibly do, being as young as they are. These kids who took part in child labor started some as early as the age of four or five, and then kept working until the day they died. Most of the time these kids has to work as much or sometimesRead MoreUrbanization, Industrialization, Popullation1376 Words   |  6 PagesBritain from the middle of the 18th to the early 19th century and presented a prototype for industrial revolution spreading throughout Western Europe and North America afterwards. The greatest significance of this process is that it replaced manual labor by machinery as well as mechanical production took the place of manual production. Furthermore, the industrialization was made possible by the great, incredible and numerous inventions, such as steam engin e technology, electric power, cotton gin, elevatorsRead MoreThe Gilded Age By Mark Twain1730 Words   |  7 PagesThe Gilded Age was a period from the late 1800s through the early 1900s. The name of this time period was given by Mark Twain and Charles Dudley Warner in their book The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today which expresses this time using two stories. One of a Tennessee family trying to sell undeveloped land and the other of two upper class businessmen. This book visits the highs and lows of living in this age. Those who are rich and plentiful, and those who are dirt poor. Showing the struggle people went

Evolution is a complex process by which organisms change...

Evolution is a complex process by which organisms change over time; it is a process in which traits are passed from one generation to the next (Darwin and Beer 1996:108-139). Evolutionists have tried to explain the loss of functions of different organs, for centuries. The two most prominent scientists that studied evolution were Jean-Baptist Lamarck and Charles Darwin. Lamarck’s theory of inheritance of acquired characters and Darwin’s variational evolution were the most important theories that attempted to explain evolution before the discovery of genes during the beginning of the twentieth century. Over two centuries, Lamarck’s theory of inheritance of acquired characters has been the center of controversy. The loss of the†¦show more content†¦His theory was simple, but the impact it had was immense. Darwin’s theory can be summarized in three words: â€Å"descent with modification† (Darwin 1996:127). He believed that the changes observed in an organism are not the result of an external influence, but rather, changes that resulted from random events. He proposed that beneficial changes for a given species could be passed through generations and those that were deleterious could be eliminated. Darwin called his theory natural selection (Mills 2004:93-103). From an evolutionary perspective, the human appendix is a derivative of the caecum in our primate ancestors. The vestigiality of the human appendix can be explained through Darwin’s theory based on a beneficial change. The change triggered morphological variations in the human appendix, decreasing its size through millions of years to a mere rudiment as it is today (Mills 2004:105-109). If one considered that the human appendix is a derivative of the primitive herbivorous caecum found in our primate ancestors, Darwin’s theory comes to light as the most accepted explanation of the loss in the functionality of the human appendix. As our ancestors starte d incorporating meat to their diet, the function of the appendix was less necessary and an unexpected beneficial change- in this case the lost of its function- was passed on generation after generation. Darwin’s theory of evolution is correct, but the missing explanation in his work is the mechanism of inheritance ofShow MoreRelatedEvolution And Evolution Of Evolution1333 Words   |  6 PagesWhat is Evolution? Evolution is the modification of characteristics of living organisms over generations (StrangeScience.net, 2015); it is the gradual process of development by which the present diversity of living organisms arose from the earliest forms of life, which is believed to have been ongoing for at least the past 3000 million years (Hine, 2004). Common ancestry are groups of living organisms that share the most recent common ancestor, by which scientific evidence proves that all life onRead MoreThe Process Of Evolution And Evolution1679 Words   |  7 PagesBiology April 6th, 2015 The Process of Evolution Evolution is â€Å"the process by which different kinds of living organisms are thought to have developed and diversified from earlier forms during the history of the earth,† Google. Google. Google, n.d. Web. 11 Apr. 2015. Evolution is the reason there is change in the genetic makeup of a population, the reason organisms are linked by common ancestors, and evolution is still happening today because of the constant change in environment. This paper focusesRead MoreDarwin s Theory Of Evolution1620 Words   |  7 Pagestheory of evolution by natural selection through his book called ‘On the Origin of Species’. The book was released in 1859 and it explained the process of how organisms changed over time through the result of changes in heritable physical or behavioural traits. These changes allow an organism to adapt to the environment that it inhabits so that the organism’s chances of survival improve and produce more offspring (Than, 2015). However, biologi cal evolution does not simply mean a change over time. It isRead MoreEvolution Involving Various Stages And One Of Them Were Natural Selection1620 Words   |  7 Pages10/15/2015 Question 2 Evolution involving various stages and one of them was natural selection. There are numerous examples that are evidence enough of the process of evolution by natural selection. Out of those various examples, I found two of them useful in my comprehension of how natural selection works. These are a creation of pressure by limited resources and adaptation. During the evolution process by natural selection, the limited amount of resources that existed during that time greatly contributedRead MoreWill the Earliest Hominid Please Standup?: Evoultion Exposed Essay1317 Words   |  6 PagesHominid Please Stand Up? Evolution Exposed Evolution and religion has been a disputable discussion over the decades. Religious believers simply discarded the idea that humans have came from swinging monkeys. Although it is a scientific theory, it is backed up by the heavy weight of scientific evidence. The first thing that one might consider is that religion is composed by thousands of individual memes, which supports myths, moralities, and complex ideas or memeplexes, which will never guarantee itsRead MoreThe Inner Workings Of Evolution And Natural Selection843 Words   |  4 PagesEvidence Investigate the inner workings of pluricellular evolution, cell shape and function, as well as how cells survive and multiply. This is an essential question to consider and elaborate on when trying to prove the topic of evolution. Evolution will be proven hereby by elaborating on the inner workings of the Endosymbiotic theory, Multicellular evolution and Natural selection, along with Cell specialization, replacement and Differentiation. The Endosymbiotic theory is an assumption basedRead MoreOrigin Of Life On Earth And How Biological Populations Have Changed And Developed Over Successive Generations1635 Words   |  7 Pages The theory of evolution discusses, with considerable proof, the history of life on earth and how biological populations have changed and developed over successive generations. Despite the abundance of evidence for evolution, both scientific and physical, some still doubt the validity of this theory. However, once compared with the alternative theory of creation, it is apparent that evolution is the most probable explanation for the origin of life on earth, to date. This essay will explain a handfulRead MoreEvolution And Evolution Of Evolution1110 Words   |  5 PagesEvolution What is evolution? How did life even come about? People really ask this questions not knowing how this thing called life came about. With this being said this is where we come back to the question of what is evolution. Evolution the process in which life undergo changes over time. Also where organisms are transformed or adjust into something different in order to cope with different surrounding changes. Just like anything else there is more to evolution than just a change over time thereRead MoreEvolution And Evolution Of Evolution1337 Words   |  6 Pagesaround, which creates a unique perspective for Anthropologists. Physically and culturally, Anthropologists work to gather data through various subfields within Anthropology to adapt to the human species. Evolution would be defined as when â€Å"something† can develop from something that is simplistic to something that can adapt to the world around it and is more complex. All human beings in past and present as well as all living organisms have been part of a process of Evolution. Evolution can beRead MoreThe Proces of Evolution653 Words   |  3 PagesWithout evolution, and the constant ever changing environment, the complexity of living organisms would not be as it is. Evolution is defined as a process that results in heritable changes in a population spread over many generations (8).Scientists believe in the theory of evolution. This belief is based on scientific evidence that corroborates the theory of evolution. In Figure 1 the pictures of the skulls depict the sequence of the evolution of Homo-sapiens. As the figure shows, man has evolved

Stefan’s Diaries Bloodlust Chapter 32-33 Free Essays

Chapter 32 Stefan,† a disembodied voice whispered. I was in the labyrinth back at Veritas, the lush green hedges rising higher than my head, the sun beating down upon my shoulders. My collar was itchy and constrictive–for some reason I was in my Sunday best. We will write a custom essay sample on Stefan’s Diaries: Bloodlust Chapter 32-33 or any similar topic only for you Order Now From around the bend Damon approached, his blue eyes wide and innocent. â€Å"Want to race, brother?† he challenged. Of course I accepted. Suddenly, we were sitting on the porch swing, with Katherine wedged between us, mischief in her dark eyes, as she plucked petals from a daisy. Her leg was so close I felt it grazing mine. As her gaze shifted back and forth, I realized the game she was playing: The flower would determine which one of us she would choose. When she reached the final petal, her eyes locked onto mine, and I knew that I was the victor. She leaned in to kiss me, and I closed my eyes, anticipating the soft touch of her lips. But instead I felt a stake plunge into my heart. My eyes fluttered open, and there stood my brother, laughing as he dug the wood yet deeper into me, the flower petals crushed beneath my prone form. My head lolled to the side, and my eyes snagged on the girl who was bleeding to death next to me on the grass. Her hair was fire-red, and her skin was moon-pale beneath her freckles. Callie!I tried to shout. But Damon snatched up my words in his fist before sinking a knife over and over into Callies back. â€Å"Stefan!† a voice called again, louder this time. I recognized the lilting alto.Lexi. â€Å"Nooo † I moaned. I couldnt allow Damon to kill her, too. â€Å"Go away!† â€Å"Stefan .† She came closer still, kneeling down beside me, holding a goblet to my lips. â€Å"No,† I said again. She shook my shoulders violently. My eyes popped open. The walls around me were painted with cracked red paint, and I saw a gilt-edged portrait on the opposite wall. I sat up, touching my face with my hands, then glancing down. I was still wearing my ring. I touched the stone. It felt very real. â€Å"Lexi?† I asked thickly. â€Å"Yes!† She smiled, clearly relieved. â€Å"Youre awake.† I glanced down at my body. My arm still throbbed, and there was dried blood underneath my fingernails. â€Å"Am I alive?† She nodded. â€Å"Just barely.† â€Å"Damon?† â€Å"We didnt get him,† Lexi said darkly. â€Å"He ran off.† â€Å"Callie?† I asked. I didnt want to hear, but I needed to know. Lexi looked down at her fingernails for a long moment, then lifted her amber eyes to mine. â€Å"Im sorry, Stefan. We tried Even Buxton tried to save her â€Å" â€Å"But she was too far gone,† I finished for her. My head throbbed. â€Å"Where is she now?† Lexi pushed my matted hair off my temple. Her fingers were cool against my burning skin. â€Å"In the river. The whole citys looking for her † Lexis voice trailed off, but I understood everything that she wasnt saying. â€Å"Before you rest, you need to drink,† Lexi murmured, helping me sit up again. â€Å"Its your favorite, goats blood,† she said with a sad smile. I put my lips to the goblet. The brackish liquid tasted nothing like sweet, full-bodied human blood, but it was warm. And it contained something human blood never would: a dull spark of redemption. The more of this I drank, the less human blood would run through me. I wasnt naï ¿ ½ve, though. Guilt would always flow through my veins. Id killed too many in my short time as a vampire, destroyed too many lives. Whether or not I drank from her, Callies death was on my hands as well. I should have turned my back on her, told her I never wanted to see her. But Id been weak. â€Å"Good boy,† Lexi murmured as I finished drinking from the cup. I didnt feel good. I felt sick and scared and unsure of what to do. Damon was still out in the world, somewhere, and Callies blood was running through his veins. My stomach tightened. â€Å"I dont know what to do,† I admitted, searching Lexis eyes for answers. But Lexi was silent. â€Å"I dont know what to tell you,† she said finally. â€Å"But I do know youre a good man.† I sighed, ready to point out that I wasnt a man at all, I was a monster. But Lexi stood up and gathered the mugs from the night table. Chapter 33 When I woke up, I could tell from the light streaming through the crack in the curtains that it was daylight. I swung my feet onto the hardwood floor and grabbed the neat pile of clothes from the shopping trip with Lexi. It seemed like a lifetime ago. I put on a new shirt, slicked my hair back, and put the rest of the clothes in a makeshift carrying case formed from my tattered shirt from Mystic Falls–the only item I still had from my old life. I glanced around the room, my eyes taking in the familiar layers of dust in the corners. I wondered how many vampires had passed through this house and whether Lexi would find another young vampire to take under her wing. I hoped, for his sake as well as hers, that hed have a better time in this city of sin than I had had. Lexi was sitting in the living room. In her hands was the portrait of her brother. As soon as I stepped in, she glanced up. â€Å"Stefan,† she said. â€Å"Im sorry,† I cut in. And I was, for all of it. For coming to New Orleans. For disrupting her life. For bringing danger to the tiny spot of security the vampires had managed to carve out. â€Å"Im not. It was a privilege to have you.† Her gaze turned serious. â€Å"Im sorry about Callie–and about your brother.† â€Å"Hes not my brother anymore,† I said quickly. Lexi set down the portrait on the coffee table. â€Å"Perhaps not anymore. But as you said yourself, he was for your whole human life. Can you remember that and forget the rest?† I shrugged. I didnt want to remember Damon. Not now, not ever. Lexi crossed the room and put her hand on my arm. â€Å"Stefan, missing humans and your human life hurts. But it does get easier.† â€Å"When?† I asked, my voice cracking slightly. She glanced back at the portrait on the table. â€Å"Im not sure. It happens gradually.† She paused, then laughed, the sound so innocent and lighthearted that I wanted to sit down and stay at the house forever. â€Å"Let me guess. You want it to happen now.† I smiled. â€Å"You know me well.† Lexi frowned. â€Å"You need to learn to slow down, Stefan. You have an eternity ahead of you.† A silence fell between us, the wordeternityclanging in my ears. With a jerk, I pulled Lexi into a hug, inhaled the comforting aroma of our friendship, then sped out of the house without a glance back. Once outside, I chastised myself for my sentimentality. I had much to atone for, and feeling sorry for myself was self-indulgent. I paused at the spot on the street where Callie had died. There was no bloodstain, nothing to mark the fact that shed even existed. I knelt down, glancing over my shoulder before I kissed the pavement. Then I stood up and began to run, faster and faster. It was dawn, and the city was just waking up. Messenger boys zipped by on delivery bikes, and Union soldiers marched through the streets, their rifles nestled in their arms like infants. Vendors were already setting up on the sidewalk, and the air smelled like sugar and smoke. And, of course, like the tangy scent of blood and iron. I quickly reached the train station, where the platform was already bustling. Men in morning coats sat on worn wooden benches in the waiting area, reading newspapers, while women nervously clutched their purses. The entire station had an air of festive transience. It was the perfect hunting ground. And before I could help it, my fangs protruded from my gums. Bowing my face into my hands, I counted to ten, fighting the hunger that raced through me and waiting for my teeth to click back into their human form. The whistle blew, and the train roared into the station, kicking up a cloud of dust and breaking me out of my reverie. I followed the soldier on board, wondering if he and his lover would experience a happy ending. I took solace in knowing, at least, that should they not, it would not be because of me. I entered the coach compartment. â€Å"Ticket, sir?† a conductor asked, holding out his hand. I locked eyes with him, my stomach turning with disgust at having to rely on my Power. Let me pass.†I showed it to you,† I said aloud. â€Å"You must have forgotten.† How to cite Stefan’s Diaries: Bloodlust Chapter 32-33, Essay examples

Business Statistics for Financial Decision †MyAssignmenthelp.com

Question: Discuss about the Business Statistics for Financial Decision. Answer: Introduction: The report analyses sales figures of Schmeckt Gut for the last 25years (1991-2015)and tries to forecast sales for the year2016. The first explanatory variable considers here is the Gross Domestic Product in US dollar capture the income development. The trend in prices is indicated in terms of average increase in the price index. Population is another important factor determined the sales of energy bar. The data on population for the age limit 15 to 65 years are studied. A survey is conducted to measure the level of satisfaction from the energy bar consumption. The satisfaction level is ranked from 0 to 10 where 0 implies not satisfied and 10 implies very satisfied. In order to promote products company makes advertisement. Advertisement of energy bars that is number of advertisement on an average. The last variable consideris the number of stores from where energy bars can be purchased. All the chosen explanatory variables are likely to have large influence on sales. Sales US$ Survey score Advertisement Stores Sales US$ 1 Survey score 0.588601019 1 Advertisement 0.986236917 0.54833082 1 Stores 0.971109284 0.52890297 0.970966786 1 The correlation matrix shows the correlation between sales and independent variables of satisfaction score, number of advertisement and number of stores. The correlation coefficient between sales and satisfaction score is 0.59. The positive correlation implies a positive relation between sales and survey score. The coefficient is high showing a strong correlation between the two variables. The correlation coefficient between Sales and number of advertisement is 0.99. A value of correlation coefficient close to 1 shows a perfect positive relation between the variables. The correlation matrix gives value of correlation coefficientequals to 0.9711. This value is also close to 1 implying perfect linear relationship between sales and stores. Time Series Regression Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.997898471 R Square 0.995801359 Adjusted R Square 0.994401812 Standard Error 0.020094198 Observations 25 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 6 1.7238 0.2873 711.5169 0.0000 Residual 18 0.0073 0.0004 Total 24 1.7310 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 12.763 1.008 12.660 0.000 10.645 14.881 ln(GDP) 0.065 0.052 1.267 0.221 -0.043 0.173 ln(Price index) -0.131 0.017 -7.615 0.000 -0.167 -0.095 ln(Popualtion) -0.350 0.135 -2.586 0.019 -0.635 -0.066 ln(satisfaction) 0.084 0.025 3.413 0.003 0.032 0.136 ln (advertisement) 0.868 0.093 9.314 0.000 0.672 1.064 ln(Stores) 0.230 0.078 2.954 0.008 0.066 0.393 From the regression result the estimated equation is obtained as The coefficient of ln(GDP) is 0.065.The positive value of the coefficient implies a positive relation between sales and GDP. The variable is not statistically significant as the p value is 0.221, which is greater than the significance level of 5%. The coefficient of ln(Price Index) is -0.131. This indicates 1% increases in prices reduces sales by 0.13%. The variable is statistically significant as indicated by the significant p value of 0.000. The coefficient of ln(population) in -0.350. The unit increases in population aged between 15 to 65 years causes a decrease in sales by 0.35%. The variable ln(population) is statistically significant. The three remaining variables satisfaction score, number of advertisement and number of stores are significant determinant for sales of energy bars. These three variables have positive impact on sales. However, the highest effect is estimated for number of advertisement with coefficient value of 0.868, followed by number of stores and satisfaction score with estimated coefficient of 0.23 and 0.084. The following forecasts are given for the independent variables. Based on these information sales in 2016 can be predicted. If GDP grow by 2.5%, then GDP becomes Price index = 2%. Given population grows by 0.5 percent population in 2016 is Satisfaction score = 7.5 Number of advertisement = 18 Number of stores = 12 Taking the logarithm of each of the dependent variables and putting them in the estimated equation the sales of 2016 is predicted as Taking antilog, the predicted sales in 2016 is obtained as 1047387.7 Therefore, the approximate sale of Schmeckt Guts energy bars in 2016 is 1047387.7. Methods of forecasting The alternative forecasting techniques that can be applied are trend analysis and exponential smoothing. Trend analysis is a common forecasting technique used by business or other organization to predict the future outcome based on historical data. In statistics trend analysis captures the pattern of time series behavior. Regression analysis gives a cause and effect relation based on least square measures (Cameron Trivedi, 2013). Trend analysis can predict the future value without the estimated equation. It analysis the behavior of variables overtime and then predict the future value. In this study trend of sales and the dependent variables from 1991 to 2015 and the forecasted value of these indicators are used to predict sales in 2016. Accordingly the predicted sale of 2016 is obtained as 1050012.9. The predicted value of sales by trend analysis is very close to that obtained from the regression analysis. Exponential smoothing is a kind of moving average used for time series forecasting. The forecasting is done using the following equation Ft is the forecasted sales of year t At-1 is the actual sales of previous year Ft-1 is the forecasted sales of the previous year is the smoothening constant , 01 The forecasting is done for a given value of . As no value of is given, it is taken as 0.5. This forecasting technique compares the prior forecasting estimate with actual value and use the difference or error to make new forecast (Montgomery, Jennings Kulahci, 2015). Here values of baseline variable are used as a medium of forecasting. In the exponential smoothing previous years sales value are used to forecast sales in 2016. The forecasted value of sales in 2016 is 898035.5. References Cameron, A. C., Trivedi, P. K. (2013).Regression analysis of count data(Vol. 53). Cambridge university press. Montgomery, D. C., Jennings, C. L., Kulahci, M. (2015).Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting. John Wiley Sons.